It may come as a surprise that Arsenal are the only English side who have safely negotiated their way out of the Champions League group stages. Manchester City, Chelsea and Manchester United all stand in very precarious positions as we head into the final match-day of the group phase. While United may only need the simplicity of a win away to Basel, City and Chelsea’s situations are far more complicated; a surprise considering City’s domestic form and Chelsea’s experience in the competition.
From what we’ve seen of Manchester City in Europe, it appears they may have approached the competition a little naively, not to mention Roberto Mancini’s incredibly negative substitutions in the Allianz Arena on matchday two. But going into their home tie against the current Bundesliga leaders Bayern Munich, Mancini needs to disregard any sense of defence. Quite plainly, they need to go out and win, while hoping Villarreal can pull off an unlikely upset against Napoli. With Juan Carlos Garrido missing Giuseppe Rossi through injury, the Yellow Submarines will certainly struggle against a Napoli side who have so far impressed in Europe.
On the other side of Manchester, SirAlex Ferguson is rueing missed opportunities to have had this one wrapped up. The surprise home draw against this week’s opponents Basel was one which all assumed United would comfortably win. Again, it could be that United’s poor domestic form, despite picking up the points, is spilling over into Europe while, at the same time, facing more determined sides such as Benfica. Another team hit by injuries to key players, United may find some comfort in the poor defending that was on display in Basel’s last game against FC Galati.
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Does failure to reach the knock-out stages spell the end for Andre Villas-Boas? Unlikely, as despite the potential shock failing in Europe, it could prove to be a counter-productive decision for a club experiencing a transitional period. Playing at home against a very determined Valencia may give Chelsea some inspiration. However, their unsettled defence may be something Unai Emery’s side will look to exploit – Roberto Soldado has been in excellent goal scoring form this season and may fancy his chances against David Luiz and the Brazilian’s carefree approach to the game. A nil-nil draw or a win is a must for Chelsea if they’re to advance to the next phase.
On the continent the usual suspects have already booked their place in the last 16. Any team finishing top of their group could face a draw with Italian giants AC Milan after they advanced to the next round second in group H behind Barcelona. It’s still unclear, but with Pep Guardiola preparing for the important league fixture with Real Madrid on Saturday, he may be looking to give a game to some of the fringe players and those from the youth academy. Similarly, Milan’s trip to the Czech Republic to face Viktoria Plzen could see a number of changes made in the starting XI.
Real Madrid’s group proves to be one of the more interesting ahead of the last group game. Both Ajax and Lyon have the chance of qualifying, but with Ajax needing at least a draw to progress, their home tie against Jose Mourinho’s side will heavily favour Lyon who travel to Zagreb. Even with the Clasico coming up and the likelihood of rotation, Real Madrid still possess one of the strongest squads in Europe, and the likes of Jose Callejon and Nuri Sahin will most definitely give Ajax a game. It may not turn out to be the most glamorous tie, but it could certainly be one of the most entertaining games of the week.
Elsewhere, surprise package APOEL have confirmed their participation in the draw, but whether they finish first or second is yet to be determined. Zenit travel to the Estadio do Dragao to take on Porto, who, despite their shocking results against APOEL, will be looking to Hulk for inspiration.
The final week of the Champions League group phase has definitely been built up as more of an affair due to the circumstances the final three English teams find themselves in. And while most eyes will be following their progress we should not detract from the importance of a number of other groups, including Joe Cole’s Lille who find themselves third but still with the chances of qualifying if results go their way.
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