If Tottenham Hotspur fail to beat Monaco in the Champions League on Tuesday night they will face the very real threat of being knocked out in the group stages.
Draw or defeat would see Spurs at least four points behind the French side going into the last game and if Bayer Leverkusen defeat CSKA Moscow, Mauricio Pochettino’s side would be too far behind to advance.
Tottenham have been underwhelming so far in Europe, having lost both of their games at Wembley and managed a solitary win in Moscow.
Even if Spurs did lose on Tuesday however, they would still be able to qualify for a Europa League spot with a third-placed finish with a win (or, dependant on the CSKA-Leverkusen game, a draw).
If the White Hart Lane outfit do fail to win on Tuesday and this is the case, would it be better for them to be knocked out of Europe altogether?
Pochettino may decide it isn’t worth enduring a gruelling schedule like last season and field a weakened side with no intention of winning. After all, not only is the Europa League another set of games to contend with, but given that the big sides in Western and Central Europe generally make it to the Champions League knockout stages, the Europa League tends to throw up trips further afield to opposition in places like Russia and Ukraine.
The travel time as well as the games played would take a lot out of Spurs’ star players and Pochettino will have taken note of this as a manager who manages the fitness of his players so diligently.
One for the main hallmarks of Pochettino’s reign is that he improved his players’ fitness so they could handle his high-pressing game and he tended to rotate his players a lot.
Full-backs Kyle Walker and Danny Rose were particularly vulnerable to rotation as players who got up and down the pitch while the core players like Toby Alderweireld, Jan Vertonghen and Harry Kane playing in upwards of 45 matches.
While Spurs managed this fairly well in their impressive third-placed finish last season, they did noticeably fall away at the end as they slipped below rivals Arsenal – was this mainly due to fatigue?
Pochettino has moved to sign players like Victor Wanyama, Moussa Sissoko and Vincent Janssen to ease the burden on his regulars. The latter two in particular, however, have struggled to make an impact and it’s likely the manager would have to trust players like Kane and Dele Alli for bigger games.
Both Kane and Alli are young players who have played a lot of games early in their career. That could be part of the reason that both have suffered spells on the sidelines through injury so far, while Kane also seemed tired in the summer at Euro 2016.
As well as this, they also have to consider their rivals. Manchester City and Arsenal are used to the rigours of the Champions League, whilst Chelsea and Liverpool have no European schedule to contend with. The latter two in particular have started the season on fire, partly because they are able to field their strongest squad each time.
Spurs are currently fifth in the league and had drawn four consecutive matches before the weekend’s 3-2 victory over West Ham. In a fortnight’s time they may well be looking at choosing between the Europa League this year or a challenge for next year’s Champions League qualification.
Looking at how the wheels came off last year, it’s probably clear which one most Spurs fans would pick. It will be interesting to see if Pochettino does the same.